7 Democratic party hopefuls who may have other ambitions
This is the second piece in my series on the 2020 election.
“Wow, this 2020 Democratic primary field is huge isn’t it?”
At 16 candidates (yes, I’m counting Yang and Williamson) this Democratic presidential primary may be the be the largest field of Democratic candidates for president ever, and it’s still expected to grow (’72 and ’76 were the last times Democrats came close to running this many candidates).
The Democrats haven’t had a real primary since 2008, so if they seem a little lost in the woods, unsure of who they are as a party, it might be understandable.
However, not all of the Democrats running may envision themselves moving to Pennsylvania Avenue in 2021.
In fact, there are plenty of reasons to run other than winning — to attempt to shape the debate, to raise one’s national profile, to build one’s war chest, to build connections, to shape the convention, maybe to get the VP nod or make the VP shortlist, and/or possibly even to strengthen one’s resume for an application in a future presidential administration.
Some of these play into why some of these candidates may ultimately be running — so that they can run for governor or for the senate in 2022 or 2024.
Take for example everyone’s favorite former Representative Beto O’Rourke.
1. Beto O’Rourke
Rep. O’Rourke started his political career as a member of the El Paso City Council in 2005. In 2012 he was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives. O’Rourke began building his national profile in earnest when he ran against Ted Cruz in the 2018 Texas Senate race, a race he lost by only 214,000 votes. This impressive showing and O’Rourke’s fundraising prowess made him an instant darling on the national stage and before he could give his concession speech there was talk of his 2020 run for president.
And why not? John Cornyn will be up for reelection in 2020, sure, but O’Rourke has a chance to capitalize on the moment of a presidential election — the 24/7 media buzz, bolstered by a swell in media hiring for the occasion, a presidential election is a great arena for one to flex their fundraising abilities, and O’Rourke has already made headlines. Impressive showings in the debates, a convention speech, and by 2022 when Governor Greg Abbott is up for reelection, or by 2024 when Ted Cruz is up for reelection, O’Rourke will be ready to make his case again to Texas voters.
At 46, O’Rourke is young in the arena of politics in the U.S. (Mayor Pete and Representative Gabbard are screwing up the curve this cycle to be sure), in 2024 he’ll be 51. If he were to oust Ted Cruz in 2024, he could serve four years of a senate term and run for president in 2028, though he may face the same challenge the eventual Democratic nominee will face now, facing an incumbent. And if it’s his own party, he may have to wait until 2032 to run. He would have the appeal of handing Texas to the Democrats, which would also mean he would be seen as a player all across the south (a bonus that has been to the advantage of two of three living former Democratic presidents).
Joining O’Rourke are a handful of other Democrats. Among them is a young Democratic Representative from Hawai’i, Tulsi Gabbard.
2. Tulsi Gabbard
The unique representative, known for her foreign policy positions, was a DNC Vice Chair, and came to national prominence in 2016 for being a surrogate of Senator Bernie Sanders.
Representative Gabbard has worked in public office since 2002, since she was 20 years old. She was first a member of the Hawai’i House of Representatives, then a member of the Honolulu City Council before being elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2012.
Gabbard, who’s had some trouble getting her campaign off the ground, doesn’t quite have the openings that O’Rourke has. She’s a Democrat from a Democratic state. However, Governor David Ige won’t be able to run in 2022, which would be a perfect opening for Gabbard. Though, it’s hard to say if a governorship will be appealing to a politician interested in shifting her parties conversations on foreign policy.
If Gabbard doesn’t implode, she, like O’Rourke, will have a long political career ahead of her. A bad showing in the 2020 presidential primary won’t hurt her.
Next, moving back to Texas, is former HUD Secretary Julian Castro.
3. Julian Castro
San Antonio City Council, Mayor of San Antonio, and then the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Castro has a unique resume for someone running for the presidency. Not since Herbert Hoover has someone won the presidency when their highest previous experience is cabinet secretary.
Not only would Castro have O’Rourke to contend with back in Texas, but he has to weight his political ambitions alongside those of his twin brother’s. Representatives Joaquin Castro, who currently serves as campaign chair for Secretary Castro’s presidential campaign, is often listed as a potential challenger to John Cornyn in 2020, but if he doesn’t take up that race, or if he does but doesn’t win, the Castro brothers will have to decide who wants to run for Governor and who wants to run for Senate.
At 44, they have options, but Secretary Castro hasn’t been elected to anything in a while, so his case is harder to make, and it remains to be seen if this presidential election will work to bolster his public profile.
Next we go to Indiana — and Mayor Pete.
4. Pete Buttigieg
Mayor Pete claims that he’s not in this race to get into the next race. The 37 year old’s political experience includes his 7 years as South Bend mayor, as well as a 2010 bid for State Treasurer of Indiana.
Mayor Pete, like Gabbard, seems interested in the race if, for any other reason other than winning, to play a part in shaping the conversation, but who says he can’t walk and chew gum at the same time.
In 2022 Senator Todd Young will be up for reelection, and between the presidential election and the 2020 gubernatorial election in Indiana, no one’s looking that far ahead, it could be Mayor Pete’s chance to shine. If Buttigieg passed on that race, he could run for Congress, or run for senate against Senator Mike Braun in 2024, or run for governor in 2024.
Like O’Rourke and Castro, part of Buttigieg’s appeal both in the presidential primary, and in the future, will be an ability to be a Democrat from a red state. It’s equally possible that if Buttigieg doesn’t become the next president of the United States, that he would like to go back to being Mayor of South Bend, or that he may try to run again for Chair of the Democratic National Committee.
Next on the list is former Maryland Representative John Delaney.
5. John Delaney
Rep. Delaney chose not to run for re-election to his Congressional seat in 2018, having announced his presidential campaign on July 28, 2017.
Delaney had served as Representative to Maryland’s 6th district since 2013. While it’s possible that Senator Cardin may retire and not run in 2024, creating an opening for Delaney, it’s also likely that Delaney could run to replace the term-limited Larry Hogan as Governor in 2022.
Delaney, who hasn’t gained much traction in the 2020 race, is running as a moderate.
Next, we go to Florida and Mayor Wayne Messam.
6. Wayne Messam
Messam has served as mayor of Miramar, Florida since 2015. Before that he served as a member of the Miramar City Commission.
Messam, like Buttigieg, would have his pick of races, if his run for president raises his profile. Both Governor Rob DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio will be up for reelection in 2022.
Last is John Hickenlooper.
7. John Hickenlooper
Governor John Hickenlooper has, well, already been a governor.
Hickenlooper was elected as mayor of Denver in 2003, and he served in that role until 2011. He was elected as Governor of Colorado in 2010, and served until January 2019.
I include Hickenlooper on this list because it seems that, since the nomination of Al Gore in 2000 (and his VP nominee), that Democrats have preferred senators (and I think current polling in the 2020 field holds to that).
Hickenlooper is playing up his role as a bipartisan, centrist moderate, maybe a primary season too late. Even if the governor goes back to Colorado and runs against Senator Cory Gardner in 2022, he’d be in his early 70s in 2024, and though there is some press clamor about age, neither the Democratic primary voter nor the general electorate seems bothered by an older candidate.
However this Democratic presidential primary plays out — if it has the chance to be open and broad, and all of the candidates have their chance to speak and their moment in the sun, these same folks could continue to play no insignificant role in their party’s politics, their home state’s politics, and the nation’s politics, for at least a decade to come.
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